Seattle Tipoff

Now

What I'm watching this week

Updated May 16, 2026

This page is where I track what I'm watching this week — the things that the dashboard alone can't tell you because they're still rumor, signal, or vibes.

Right now my eyes are on three things: whether the next Board of Governors meeting puts expansion on the agenda explicitly (vs. another off-the-record-only mention), whether any ownership group goes public with a Seattle-specific bid, and any public reporting on how Seattle basketball branding and history rights would be handled for a new team — the contractual details from the 2008 settlement remain unconfirmed publicly. Numbers on the home page will move when one of these crosses a public threshold; this page is where I'll explain it the day it happens.

If you want this in your inbox once a week instead of checking back, the briefing signup is on the home page.

Where the number is today

The model has Seattle's probability at 65%. The market sits at 80%. Full breakdown on the home page.

What moves the number next

The three components closest to a public state change. Each one would move the headline probability the day it lands.

  1. Board of Governors Vote

    NBA announces formal bid process, ownership finalists, fee terms, or Board approval date

  2. Ownership Group

    Formal Seattle bid submitted with disclosed lead ownership and financing plan

  3. Expansion Fee

    BoG formal expansion approval (fee locks with the vote)

All seven components, with state definitions and weights, are on the forces page.