Board of Governors Vote
ExploringNBA Board of Governors vote on Seattle expansion. Must pass with 3/4 supermajority.
State probability: 78%
Impact vs neutral: +9 pts
Weight
0.30
Forces
What is moving the number
Seven components combine via a weighted logit pool to produce the probability. Each row shows the component's state, its impact relative to a neutral baseline, and its weight in the model.
The neutral baseline is the probability if every component were exactly 50%. Components above pull the model up; components below pull it down.
Tailwinds — pulling the number up
Rights/Branding Resolution
Reported RequirementResolution of SuperSonics-related name, marks, colors, and history if Seattle is awarded an NBA team.
State probability: 85%
Impact vs neutral: +2 pts
Weight
0.05
Arena Readiness
Venue IdentifiedClimate Pledge Arena is the likely venue and was rebuilt with basketball use in mind; NBA-specific operational requirements and league sign-off remain unconfirmed.
State probability: 70%
Impact vs neutral: +2 pts
Weight
0.10
Expansion Fee
Range AnnouncedFinal expansion franchise fee agreed between NBA and ownership group. Reported range $7B-$10B. Fee typically locks with formal BoG approval, not as a separate step.
State probability: 60%
Impact vs neutral: +2 pts
Weight
0.15
Ownership Group
NoneLead ownership group identified, financing confirmed, and agreement signed with NBA.
State probability: 55%
Impact vs neutral: +1 pts
Weight
0.25
Headwinds — pulling the number down
Schedule Slot
Not StartedNBA schedule (2028-29 or 2029-30) includes a Seattle franchise.
State probability: 40%
Impact vs neutral: -1 pts
Weight
0.05
Expansion Draft Rules
Not StartedNBA announces rules for the expansion draft - player protection limits, draft mechanics. Only published after BoG formal approval.
State probability: 45%
Impact vs neutral: -1 pts
Weight
0.10