About
Why this exists
Seattle Tipoff is a transparent forecast of whether the NBA awards Seattle an expansion franchise and that franchise begins regular-season play before January 1, 2030. Relocation is excluded.
Forecast V3 models an explicit path through expansion scenarios, Seattle selection, award timing, delivery, and launch timing. The seven public milestones are observed supporting context, not weighted peer probabilities.
Who built this
One person. I'm a software engineer in Seattle, not a journalist and not a basketball insider. I started this because every time expansion came up I had to re-read the same eight articles to figure out where things actually stood. A live page felt easier.
Every forecast run is tied to a versioned assumption snapshot, explicit evidence and counterarguments, and a replayable result. The event tree, assumption cases, limitations, and prospective scorecard are all on the methodology page. The plan is to publish a quarterly track record once enough events have resolved to say anything meaningful — when I'm wrong, I'll say so there. That's the deal.
How this is funded
It isn't, yet. No ads, no affiliate links, no sponsors. The weekly briefing is free. If the site finds an audience the plan is to add sponsorships that don't involve betting platforms, ownership-group PR shops, the league itself, arena operators, or civic organizations with a direct financial stake in the expansion outcome — and to keep the dashboard itself free forever. If that changes, this paragraph changes first.
What you can do here
Read the current probability, inspect the assumptions and what-ifs, and follow the seven milestones. You can also skim recent signals and try your own calibration on the Predict page. If you'd like the weekly briefing, signup is available on the home page.